When a Bank and a Think Tank Agree: What RBC and C.D. Howe Just Told Ottawa About Immigration

In the span of about 48 hours this September, Royal Bank of Canada and the C.D. Howe Institute — a bank whose economists move markets and a think tank widely regarded as Canada's most influential — each released reports on the same subject: where Canada's immigration system is headed next. Neither is government policy. Neither changes a single eligibility requirement today. But when two institutions with very different mandates independently arrive at the same conclusion in the same week, it's worth paying attention to what they're actually saying, and what it might mean for anyone planning a move to Canada around something other than an Express Entry draw.

RBC: "The System Has Lost Its Edge"

RBC's report argues that Canada's immigration system has become harder to plan around, not because immigration itself is the problem, but because the selection method has drifted from its original design. Since 2022, an increasing share of Express Entry invitations have gone out through category-based draws — healthcare, French-language proficiency, STEM, and others — rather than through the general pool ranked purely on Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score. By RBC's own count, category-based draws accounted for roughly 60% of all invitations issued in 2026 so far.

RBC's recommendation is to go "back to basics": scale back the category system, return to ranking candidates primarily by overall CRS score, and shift labour-shortage-specific selection down to the provinces, where labour market needs can be assessed more precisely. The report also argues that immigration levels should be tied more directly to Canada's actual absorption capacity — housing supply and labour market conditions — rather than set as a standalone annual target.

C.D. Howe: Put a Number On It, and Make It the Only Number

Three days after RBC's report, the C.D. Howe Institute's Immigration Targets Council released its formal recommendation ahead of the federal government's next Immigration Levels Plan, expected this November. The Council's core ask is transparency: one published permanent residence target that includes everything — no one-time initiatives (like the In-Canada Workers Initiative) sitting outside the headline number, no surprises.

Specifically, the Council recommends annual PR admissions of 380,000 in 2027, 350,000 in 2028, and 340,000 in 2029, alongside a hard ceiling on non-permanent residents at 5% of the population in the near term, moving toward 3% over the medium term. The Council also flagged a structural gap: Canada still doesn't reliably track whether temporary residents actually leave the country when their permits expire, which makes it difficult to know if temporary population targets are even being met.

Two Institutions, One Shared Diagnosis

Strip away the different vocabularies — a bank talking about GDP and absorption capacity, a think tank talking about transparency and targets — and the underlying message is the same: Canada's immigration system has become less predictable, and predictability is now the thing both institutions are asking Ottawa to restore. Both want fewer ad hoc carve-outs. Both want selection tied more closely to demonstrated economic outcomes rather than short-term category-chasing. Both are, in effect, arguing that the system should reward what a candidate can actually contribute, verified and assessed, rather than which occupation bucket happened to be drawn that month.

What This Means If Your Plan Was Never Built Around a CRS Score

It's worth being direct about what these reports are and aren't. They are recommendations from outside government — informed, closely watched, but not binding. The real test comes when the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan is released this November, and even then, Express Entry category reform (if it happens at all) would take time to implement.

But there's a pattern worth noticing for anyone whose route to Canada runs through business immigration rather than the general Express Entry pool. Pathways built on demonstrated economic contribution — a work permit supported by significant benefit to Canada, a provincial nomination tied to an actual business investment or job offer, a Labour Market Impact Assessment grounded in a real labour need — have never depended on which occupation category IRCC happened to prioritize that quarter. That's precisely the kind of predictability both RBC and C.D. Howe are now asking Ottawa to build back into the system generally. It's also, not coincidentally, the model that proactive, evidence-based business immigration planning has been built on all along.

Where This Leaves Things

Nothing in either report changes today's rules. But both are aimed squarely at the plan the federal government is drafting right now for 2027 onward, and both are pushing in the same direction: fewer carve-outs, clearer targets, and selection grounded in demonstrated economic contribution. Whether Ottawa adopts either institution's specific numbers remains to be seen — but the direction of travel is becoming harder to ignore.

For business owners, entrepreneurs, and employers thinking through a multi-year immigration strategy, the takeaway isn't to wait and see what happens to Express Entry. It's a reminder that pathways grounded in a genuine economic case for Canada have generally weathered policy shifts better than pathways dependent on a moving points threshold — and that's worth factoring into how you plan from here.

Not sure how a shifting policy environment affects your specific plan? DC Immigration works with business owners, entrepreneurs, and employers across Canada (outside Quebec) to build immigration strategies grounded in significant benefit and provincial nomination pathways — routes designed for long-term predictability, not this quarter's CRS cutoff. Book a consultation to talk through your options.

Disclaimer:
This article is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Immigration policies change frequently. Consult a regulated Canadian immigration consultant (RCIC) for advice specific to your situation.